URGENT: SPLC Report Finds 24 Million Outstanding Mail-In Ballots

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A new analysis released today by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) finds that while nearly 80 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting, another 24 million people have an outstanding mail ballot that they have not returned.

Amidst a series of court decisions threatening to not count ballots arriving after November 3 in the mail and corresponding USPS delays, there is the potential for hundreds of thousands to millions of votes arriving late and not being counted.

“On the eve of Election Day, we’re urging voters who have not returned their ballots to submit them through official drop boxes where available or in-person to election offices. It’s highly unlikely that they’ll be received in time to be counted if mailed. Voters can also surrender their absentee ballot and vote in-person on Tuesday as is their right,” said Seth Levi, Chief Strategy Officer for the SPLC. “Voters who have already returned their ballot should check to confirm it was received.

"If it hasn’t been received, they can and should vote in-person on November 3.”

The analysis is a part of an ongoing data tracking and reporting project between BlueLabs Analytics and the SPLC to track requested and returned absentee ballots as well as early voting in the states that report these numbers. These numbers will be essential reference points as Election Night results begin to be reported, and the SPLC, allied groups, and election observers strive to ensure enough votes have been counted for an appropriate call to be made at presidential and statewide levels.

Read the full report here.

Currently, the SPLC projects at least one additional update of this kind before polls close November 3.

Additional National Highlights:

As of November 1, just under 80 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting. Another 24 million people have an outstanding mail ballot. The number of people who have already voted by mail or early in-person represents 58.4% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election.
Using modeled partisanship combined with party affiliation where it’s available, we can estimate that Democrats hold a 17.5% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 18.2% on 10/30). However, Republicans hold a 2.2% advantage among early in-person votes (up from 1.3% on 10/30). Democrats still have many more ballots outstanding by a margin of 14.8% (up from 14.5% on 10/30).
Young voters’ share of votes cast continues to rise. Voters aged 18-29 now make up 11.1% of mail ballots cast (up from 10.5% on 10/30) and 11.8% of early in-person votes (up from 11.1% on 10/30). This trend has been consistent day-to-day for the last two weeks.
Black voters continue to turn out at high rates for early in-person voting. Black voters are just 14.3% of registered voters nationally but make up 13.4% of early in-person votes cast (no change from 10/30).
Latinx voters continue to make more use of voting by mail than early in-person voting. Latinx voters currently make up 10.0% of mail ballots cast (up from 9.7% on 10/30) and 8.4% of early in-person votes (up slightly from 8.3% on 10/30).
The steady increase in vote share among first-time voters has continued. 7.2% of mail ballots cast are from first-time voters (up from 6.8% on 10/30) and 7.0% of early in-person votes (up from 6.5% on 10/30).

Key State Highlights:

Florida

4,281,124 voters in Florida have cast their ballots by mail and 3,353,866 have voted early in-person. Another 1,133,560 have an outstanding mail ballot. The total number of votes cast in Florida so far (both by mail and EIP) is 81.1% of the votes cast in Florida in the 2016 general election.
Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 14.8% (down from 15.4% on 10/30). However, Republicans currently hold a 13.0% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 12.5% on 10/30). Democrats still have more outstanding ballots than Republicans by a margin of 10.8% (up from 9.5% on 10/30). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
Latinx voters’ vote share in Florida continues to trend up. Latinx voters currently make up 15.3% of mail ballots cast (up from 15.0% on 10/30) and 17.3% of early in-person votes (up from 17.0% on 10/30).
Black voters continue to over-index among early in-person votes compared to their registration rates. Black voters make up 14.6% of early in-person votes despite being just 14.2% of registered voters. Black voters also represent 11.5% of mail ballots cast (no change from 10/30).

Pennsylvania

2,196,407 voters in Pennsylvania have cast their mail ballots with another 726,168 voters having an outstanding mail ballot.
Democrats continue to hold a large lead over Republicans in mail ballots cast, with a margin of 44.8% (down from 47.5% on 10/30). Democrats also hold many more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans by a margin of 17.5% (down from 20.7% on 10/30). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
Black voters in Pennsylvania make up 11.6% of mail ballots cast (up slightly from 11.5% on 10/30) despite being just 11.8% of registered voters in Pennsylvania.
White college-educated voters make up 43.3% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down from 43.6% on 10/30). White non-college voters make up 44.6% of mail ballots cast by white voters (up slightly from 44.5% on 10/30).

Michigan

2,443,598 voters in Michigan have cast their ballots by mail with another 144,343 having voted early in-person. 652,395 more voters have an outstanding mail ballot.
Black voters make up 11.9% of mail ballots cast. This rate remains very stable, not changing since 10/21.
White college-educated voters in Michigan make up 40.6% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down slightly from 40.7% on 10/30). White non-college voters make up 50.2% of mail ballots cast by white voters. (no change since 10/30).
Michigan continues to have fewer first-time voters than the national average, though it has continued to increase in recent days. As of today, 4.7% of mail ballots cast have come from first-time voters (up from 4.4% on 10/30). And while there aren’t many early in-person votes in Michigan overall, 7.6% of those have been cast by first-time voters (up from 6.8% on 10/30).

Wisconsin

1,127,023 voters in Wisconsin have cast their mail ballots and 517,835 have voted early in-person. Another 201,310 have an outstanding mail ballot.
Young voters (aged 18-29) currently make up 8.8% of mail ballots cast (up from 8.6% on 10/30) and 6.2% of early in-person votes (up from 5.3% on 10/30).
Women are still outpacing men in mail ballots cast by a wide margin (13.7%) despite having only a 5.6% registration advantage. However, that gap shrinks considerably among early in-person votes, where women hold just a 2.6% advantage.
Black voters continue to make use of Wisconsin’s early in-person voting at high rates. Black voters currently makeup 5.6% of early in-person votes and are 5.7% of all registered voters in Wisconsin.

Nevada

527,693 voters in Nevada have cast their mail ballots and another 451,358 have voted early in-person. The state of Nevada sent mail ballots to all registered voters this year, so there is no data about ballot requests to report.
Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans by 19.2% (down from 20.1% on 10/30). Among early in-person votes, Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats by 14.6% (down slightly from 14.7% on 10/30). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
Nevada continues to have a high number of first-time voters, and it has continued to rise in the last two weeks. 13.8% of mail ballots cast have come from first-time voters (up from 13.3% on 10/30), which is well ahead of the 7.2% national average. Among early in-person votes, 10.1% have come from first-time voters (up from 9.3% on 10/30), compared to 7.0% nationally.
Latinx voters’ share of mail ballots cast is 13.4% (up from 12.9% on 10/30) and 14.8% of early in-person votes (up from 14.1% on 10/30).
Black voters’ share of mail ballots cast is 9.2% (up slightly from 9.1% on 10/30) and 8.8% of early in-person votes (no change from 10/30).

Georgia

1,143,119 voters in Georgia have cast their ballots by mail and 2,417,357 have voted early in-person. Another 339,356 voters have outstanding mail ballots. The total number of votes cast (both by mail and EIP) represents 86.5% of the total votes cast in Georgia in the 2016 general election.
Modeled Democrats hold a 4.3% advantage over modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 4.5% on 10/30). Modeled Republicans hold a 14.5% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 13.9% on 10/30).
Black voters currently make up 33.2% of mail ballots cast (down slightly from 33.3% on 10/30) and 29.5% of early in-person votes (down from 29.8% on 10/30), which is mostly keeping pace with share of registered voters (33.6%).
Young voters’ vote share in Georgia continues to trend up. Voters aged 18-29 make up 9.9% of mail ballots cast (up from 9.1% on 10/30) and 13.8% of early in-person voters (up from 12.8% on 10/30).
Young Latinx voters are continuing to turn out at higher rates than young voters in the state overall. Latinx voters under 40 are 38.8% of mail ballots cast by Latinx voters, compared to 19.2% among all voters under 40. Latinx voters under 40 are 48.6% of early in-person votes by Latinx voters, compared to 28.5% among all voters under 40.

North Carolina

866,071 voters in North Carolina have cast their ballots by mail and 3,073,599 have voted early in-person. The number of ballots cast so far (both by mail and EIP) represents 83.0% of the total votes cast in North Carolina in the 2016 general election.
Democrats currently have a 26.0% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots (down from 26.8% on 10/30) and a 1.6% advantage in early in-person voting (down from 2.2% on 10/30). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
Black voters continue to vote early in-person at high rates, making up 22.9% of votes (down from 23.1% on 10/30) compared to 23.1% of registered voters in North Carolina. Black voters represent 16.9% of mail ballots cast (down slightly from 17.0% on 10/30).

Iowa

633,318 voters in Iowa have cast their mail ballots with another 231,003 having voted early in-person. 69,045 voters have an outstanding mail ballot.
Democrats currently hold a 21.7% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 22.7% on 10/30). However, Republicans hold a 3.7% advantage among early in-person voters (up from 1.8% on 10/30). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
College-educated white voters make up 39.4% of mail ballots cast by white voters (a number that has been unchanged since 10/21) and 39.6% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down from 40.1% on 10/30).

Arizona

2,192,688 voters in Arizona have cast their ballots by mail with another 952,749 voters having an outstanding ballot. The total number of votes cast in Arizona so far represent 87.6% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election.
Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by a margin of 1.6% (down from 3.5% on 10/30). Republicans currently have more outstanding mail ballots than Democrats by a margin of 4.3% (down from 5.5% on 10/30). Arizona is one of the only battleground states where Republicans have more outstanding ballots than Democrats. This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
Latinx voters’ share of mail ballots cast has continued to trend up, currently making up 15.1% of mail ballots cast (up from 14.6% on 10/30).
Young voters’ share of mail ballots cast has continued to increase in Arizona. The share of mail ballots cast by voters aged 18-29 has increased from 10.2% on 10/30 to 11.2% as of today.

Maine

313,755 voters in Maine have cast ballots by mail and another 134,926 have voted early in-person. 39,895 voters have outstanding mail ballots.
Democrats currently hold a 32.2% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 33.8% on 10/30) and an 8.7% advantage in early in-person votes (down from 13.2% on 10/30). This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
College-educated white voters make up 39.9% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down from 40.1% on 10/30) and 37.5% of early in-person white voters (down from 38.5% on 10/30).

Oregon

In Oregon, ballots must be returned by 8 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 3. It is too late to mail your ballot, they must be returned to an official drop site. Any registered voter who has not received their ballot yet should contact their local election office.